Clearly, the housing market news, sentiment, and data are all moving pretty quickly at present, with commentary having turned sharply over the past few months from discussing the upswing to now speculating about how deep and prolonged the downturn might be. The sharp increases in mortgage rates that we’ve seen have played a key role in this turnaround.
So given all of this, let’s do a quick stock-take of where Auckland currently sits. First, there’s no doubt that market activity levels have weakened – across Auckland as a whole, they’re about 40% lower so far in 2022 than they were at this stage in 2021, with Rodney for example down by less than that, but Papakura weaker than the overall figure.
On the listings front, the new weekly flows coming onto the market have remained pretty normal across Auckland for this time of year (i.e. the Autumn/Winter lull), but with the number of properties leaving the pipeline (due to sales) having declined, the total stock on the market has risen significantly – shifting the balance of pricing power from sellers to buyers.
In that environment, it’s no surprise that values have declined. Data lifted from our automated valuations model shows that of the roughly 200 suburbs across Auckland, around 120 have seen median values drop by 1% or more since March, with areas such as Pakuranga Heights, New Windsor, and Avondale seeing declines in the range of 5-7%. But it’s not just relatively cheaper suburbs feeling the pinch either – for example, Point Chevalier (median value of $2.16m) has fallen by about 4.5% over the past three months.
In terms of market share, our Buyer Classification data shows that despite falling values (and the potential option of waiting for a lower price later) first home...
